What routes for Qantas' next six Boeing 787s?

By patrickk | May 26, 2018, 03:03 AM
Interesting on how QF will place the planes in late 2019, (assuming the next tranche of four later this year will include Bris-Chicago). Paris is certainly on the books, and possibly a second London flight (but less likely), and/or Frankfurt. I can also see Dallas move to a 789 as the current flights are a bit of over capacity (e.g moving to 6 days a week and are never full, at least when I am on them) and at times they fly back short quite a few seats (weight limitations). Can the 789 do Jo-Burg or Santiago?. If ETOPS not allowed Jo-Burg and Santiago will have to go A380s fewer days of the week. So one possibility is to have the six 789s being Sydney based and do DFW, San Francisco, Paris, and maybe Haneda, with the freed up A380s (after refurb) to Jo-burg, Santiago (4or 5 days a week each) Hong Kong and possibly Narita. I may not have enough planes for all of that. Further thoughts?
No member give thanks

By Covo95 | May 26, 2018, 07:26 AM
Qantas for the time being wont plan any more international flights out of perth, due to perth airports' unwillingness to allow more qantas international flights fly out of the qantas terminal and insists on qantas utilising the international terminal for any more international flights.
No member give thanks

By whoppersandwich | May 26, 2018, 07:36 AM

I personally don’t think they will ‘replace’ many more traditional 747 routes as opposed to augment them until the true replacement arrives... Hopefully this means we see additional Perth - Europe flights (Perth airport can’t play these games forever) and perhaps MEL - DFW.


It’s worth noting that Qantas is playing coy at the moment with it’s fleet plans, in fact - I imagine you won’t hear too much from that department until the 777X (whoops, I mean Project Sunrise 😉) orders are announced! I know it looks like 14 789s are replacing the 10 744s but there appears to be a much larger plan at play to turn a gas guzzling international outfit into a fleet of modern twinjets.


What I’m ultimately hoping to see is a net increase in seats achieved by diversifying QFs current destinations. For example, instead of a straight swap of 744 to 789 on the JNB route they could use the smaller aircraft on both JNB and CPT. Such an operation would require QF to order over two dozen widebodies in the coming years, but without an increase in service frequency or added destinations QF will essentially reject a very good opportunity to reestablish it’s dominance in the international market.

Last edited by whoppersandwich at May 26, 2018, 08.10 AM.
No member give thanks

By Red Cee | May 26, 2018, 09:06 AM
Some of them may have to be based in Sydney to allow full 747 replacement. That is unless BNE or MEL is used to fly to current 747 locations from Sydney. Personally, I think ORD - PER-SYD - SFO or YVR could be high on the books.
No member give thanks

By GregXL | May 26, 2018, 09:19 AM

I personally don’t think they will ‘replace’ many more traditional 747 routes as opposed to augment them until the true replacement arrives... Hopefully this means we see additional Perth - Europe flights (Perth airport can’t play these games forever) and perhaps MEL - DFW.


It’s worth noting that Qantas is playing coy at the moment with it’s fleet plans, in fact - I imagine you won’t hear too much from that department until the 777X (whoops, I mean Project Sunrise 😉) orders are announced! I know it looks like 14 789s are replacing the 10 744s but there appears to be a much larger plan at play to turn a gas guzzling international outfit into a fleet of modern twinjets.


What I’m ultimately hoping to see is a net increase in seats achieved by diversifying QFs current destinations. For example, instead of a straight swap of 744 to 789 on the JNB route they could use the smaller aircraft on both JNB and CPT. Such an operation would require QF to order over two dozen widebodies in the coming years, but without an increase in service frequency or added destinations QF will essentially reject a very good opportunity to reestablish it’s dominance in the international market.

Last edited by whoppersandwich at May 26, 2018, 08.10 AM.

I agree that at some time the A380s will be replaced by twin jets and the 777x would be the leading contender, but when ? Given the A380s are worth little in the second hand market, I would expect QF to keep them until the late 2020s, even if they reduce their utilisation. I think you are on the money that Project Sunrise is about getting the best deal from Boeing.
No member give thanks

By whoppersandwich | May 26, 2018, 11:08 AM
Timing is indeed everything, keep in mind the 6 747-400ERs that QF will allegedly retire by 2020 were delivered in the early 2000s. So it’s entirely possible that after a 2022 entry for the 778 that QF may then look at a slow gradual order process for the 779 (not unlike the current 789 drip feed) to replace the A380s delivered in the late 2000s. Pure speculation of course!
No member give thanks

By Luke49 | May 26, 2018, 12:02 PM
Sounds like they want 777-8 but range is a problem. Makes sense having 787-9.
787-9 can go anywhere really bar (SYD-LHR) and they can order different seating configurations.

No member give thanks

By mviy | May 26, 2018, 10:04 PM
787-9 can go anywhere really bar (SYD-LHR) and they can order different seating configurations.


There's MEL-LHR, there's also e.g. SYD-JFK and maybe MEL-JFK direct non-stop that is part of Project Sunrise.

This'll lead to 787 needing to be redeployed elsewhere as they won't have to fly LAX-JFK or MEL-PER-LHR anymore.

QF would need to see the additional 787 as viable both before and after Project Sunrise is implemented.
No member give thanks

By patrickk | May 27, 2018, 02:14 AM
I suspect MEL-PER-LHR will still continue as 60% of passengers are Perth originating and Adelaide and Canberra use that flight as well. Not sure the 789 has the legs for SYD-ORD but from BRIS will just make it. There also may be enough Bris originating passengers to keep the 789 Bris-LA-New York going
No member give thanks

By whoppersandwich | May 27, 2018, 10:10 AM
Much like QF9/10, I expect the Sunrise flights to be offered at a significant premium. Thus, to maintain a hold of both the non-stop and one(or more)-stop segments I suspect the current North American flights to continue. The AA joint venture being signed could obviously have further implications!
No member give thanks

By moa999 | May 27, 2018, 01:01 PM
I think the simple answer is these six won't add many new routes as they are simply replacing 747s.


ETOPS330 will see them on JNB and SCL routes, possibly supplemented by a 330 on PER-JNB with the rest used on the remaining US 747 services.


Just can't see QF dropping frequencies on these routes (they will already downgrade seatcount).


Possibly DFW may go 787 with the 380 moved back to West Coast

Last edited by moa999 at May 27, 2018, 01.03 PM.
No member give thanks

By whoppersandwich | May 27, 2018, 03:57 PM
Both JNB and SCL 747s have been departing with at least 300pax consistently over the last few months. It would seem pretty backward for QF to give up all that revenue as early as next year.
No member give thanks

By patrickk | May 28, 2018, 01:10 AM
Then I suspect JNB and SCL will go A380 five days a week and 789 to DFW. Haneda to a A333 and maybe A380 to Narita as Haneda won't allow them at suitable times. Note 2020 is the 100th anniversary so fare-welling 747s will be part of that as will be ordering project sunrise planes, and all the A380s be refurbed, so will have an extra A380 for the juggling of routes.
No member give thanks

By Therealtimsmith | May 28, 2018, 07:53 AM
My theory is that this is evidence of Qantas' negotiation tactics with CASA over ETOPS. I think they are hoping that a public appearance to exchange the 747s to 787s on a 'one for one' basis will assist in their argument that they're the required jet for SYD-SCL and SYD-JNB. This would be furthered by the use of LATAMs 787 on SCL-MEL. However, beyond replacement of these routes, the six jets will be really under pressure if they are going to introduce more than a couple additional new frequencies or routes. So I reckon that these jets are meant to appear as the replacements for the 747s as a bargaining chip to CASA, with further orders planned in their growth strategy but not yet announced to roll out the additional new game changing routes.
No member give thanks

By Austline | May 28, 2018, 02:52 PM
I think that SYD/DFW will move to 7 x 789 and they will introduce 4 x 789 MEL/DFW, JNB will transition to 4 x A380 and SCL 3 x A380. They may even drop SCL and codeshare on LA, rumours have it that LATAM want to go SYD/SCL non stop. If and when the AA JV is approved Brisbane will get a daily AA service BNE/LAX. I can't see QF downgrading SYD/HND it will go to a 789 same timing and they will supplement this with 7 x A330 SYD/NRT, morning departure ex SYD. New routes, QF are very conservative and while we would all like to see PER/CDG or SYD/ORD, I am not holding my breath. Project sunrise, this will allow them to look at ultra long-haul and also faze out the A380, pity as I love this aircraft.
No member give thanks

By patrickk | May 29, 2018, 12:19 AM
Austline I agree but am not sure the 789 has the legs for SYD/ORD hence BRIS/ORD which is much the same as Perth LHR and may happen this year (JV approved?) with the current tranche of Four.
No member give thanks

×
×

Forgot Password

If you’ve forgotten your password, simply enter your email address below, then click 'Submit'. We’ll send you an email to re-activate your account and enter a new password.

×

Resend activation email

If you have not received the activation email, simply enter your email address below, then click 'Submit'. We’ll send you an email containing the activation link.

×